Lynnda and I are married 50 years this month. We decided to do a second honeymoon this month at our happy place, Walt Disney World. Just us. No children or grandchildren on this trip. We have a special dinner planned for the California Grill atop the Contemporary Resort Hotel. Disney is a place for us to relax, play and use our imaginations. My favorite attraction is the Rise of the Resistance at Galaxy’s Edge in Disney’s Hollywood Studios.

In the attraction, you are a recruit for the Resistance on a transport to a secret base. For me it’s fun to pretend this is real. Your transport gets captured by the Empire and is taken aboard an Imperial Star Destroyer. You are commanded to exit the transport, coming face to face with a company of armed Stormtroopers. Everyone is marched to a detention area. I whispered to Lynnda, “I have a bad feeling about this.” A low authoritative voice behind us said, “As you should.” It was our guard. (A Disney cast member in character.) I wondered what was next. I won’t give away the rest of the attraction. For me it is fun to play in this fantasy world.

Those in leadership positions in business, academia, government, private organizations and even families need to know the difference between reality and fantasy. Sometimes that can be difficult.

Back in 1999, I asked our high school soccer team seniors, “What is your dream?” Our captain, BJ responded. “Coach, we want to play for the state title.” My first thought was, “He isn’t serious. This is fantasy.” In the history of the school no soccer team had ever won a regional championship. BJ was the lone returning starter. Then there were no state classes by school size. To get to the state title game we needed to beat the biggest, the best and the toughest.

After over 25 years of high school coaching, I learned from my players; A team with a dream is powerful. The boys believed it was possible. Looking back, logically our dream didn’t make sense. It didn’t matter. We won the region championship 5-0 and overcame a 0-2 deficit to win in overtime in the state semifinal to achieve our dream. We lost to Morgantown High in the championship. That championship game was the first of now 12 state championship games we have now played in, winning eight of them. An emotional dream is powerful.

When it comes to human achievement fantasy versus reality is harder to predict. We have control over our dreams and can decide how hard we are willing to work to achieve them. We choose whether to give up when the going gets tough. In athletics and in business I have seen people accomplish great things against the odds. After a serious car accident and a broken neck my wife, Lynnda decided she was not going to miss our Disney World trip with the grandchildren. She did the hard work and refused to quit. One month after her accident, we have a photo of Lynnda and our oldest granddaughter in front of the Haunted Mansion.

Government policies creating goals that neglect sound science, basic engineering principles and simple math are quite different. The goal set in Washington, D.C., four years ago, to electrify transportation was a fantasy because it neglected basic math, science and engineering. Shutting down baseload coal and nuclear power replacing it with intermittent renewables and expecting the grid to meet increased power demands of EVs, AI, data centers and increased manufacturing was a potentially deadly fantasy. When the power goes off people can die.

This is no surprise if we look at California and Europe. They have high electric rates and have experienced blackouts and brownouts. In fall of 2023, Germany dismantled a windfarm to get to the coal under it. Renewables are fine as long as they have backup baseload power. That comes at a cost. We toured a company in Columbus who uses rooftop solar. Their photovoltaic cells are double sided. They painted the roof white for reflectivity and produce 30% more power providing electricity for their building on sunny days. They sell 40% of the electricity they produce back to the grid. As an agricultural engineer by degree this makes more sense than covering productive farmland with solar panels.

At the West Virginia Manufacturers Association conference in Wheeling last month, we heard from two electricity providers and a PJM representative about how our region could have blackouts and brownouts by 2030 unless additional baseload power is added to the grid. At that time 95% of in queue PJM power additions were intermittent wind and solar projects. Only 5% were base load natural gas. I learned today, PJM faced with reality recently approved emergency natural gas projects to meet the shortfall. PJM also approved some nuclear and battery projects.

Shale Crescent USA works with companies helping to find sites for industrial projects coming to our region. They also are working with data centers that are looking for sites and large amounts of power for their projects. Commercial realtors tell us, two years ago, data center companies wanted only renewable power. That was a fantasy. Last year they were looking for dependable baseload power with some renewables. Today they want baseload power only. If a datacenter loses power they lose data. Most of these data center projects will be on microgrids or onsite power, mostly natural gas. The data center developers are now upset by how long it takes to get gas pipelines approved.

The political climate has changed to where companies and engineers are willing to talk openly about the limitations of renewables. We still need all energy sources. Each has areas where they work best. People are capable of achieving high dreams as long as they don’t violate sound science and basic engineering principles. Fantasy is fun at Disney World. Leaders need to make decisions based on truth. Fantasy is dangerous in the real world.

Greg Kozera, gkozera@shalecrescentusa.com is director of marketing for Shale Crescent USA. He is a professional engineer with a masters in environmental engineering and over 40 years of experience in the energy industry. Greg is a leadership expert, high school soccer coach, professional speaker, author of four books and many published articles.