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2026 brought a summer of flash floods. We all remember the devastation inflicted on parts of West Virginia in July and August. Last month, as some areas began recovering while others were inundated, Charlise Robinson used this column to point out the need for more flood resilience in the state. More recent news has shown us more widespread devastation, and we in our river towns must face the question: are we ready for the next flood?
In mid-August, heavy rains and flash floods brought much of southern and central Ohio to a standstill, destroying homes and disrupting lives. In Indiana, seven people died in the floods. On Aug. 29, heavy downpours raced over baked, burned-over Arizona land and caused flash flooding that killed two hikers in the Grand Canyon and caused dozens to be evacuated. As of this writing, one man, a friend of the two dead hikers, is still missing. On Aug. 26, melting permafrost caused a glacier on the Nepal/Tibet border to collapse, registering as a magnitude 5.2 earthquake on seismographs. A wall of water and debris rushed down 45 miles of the Trishuli River, killing more than 1,300 people, with over 5,000 still missing. Some of the bodies were carried 150 miles downstream into India.
There is a common denominator to these far-flung disasters: climate change. The world’s oceans have warmed, leading to an increase in average air temperatures worldwide. For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold 4% more moisture, moisture that exits the atmosphere in the form of extreme precipitation events. A 2021 article in Climate and Atmospheric Science notes that, worldwide, 1 in 4 of the record rainfalls since 2010 can be attributed to climate change. Our country’s 2023 National Climate Assessment notes that rainfall events in this country have grown heavier over the last fifty years, with the Ohio River Valley experiencing one of the largest increases in hourly rainfall rates. These downpours are exceeding the soil’s ability to absorb them, leading to more floods.
We often associate increased heat with drought and wildfires, but, paradoxically, both of these can contribute to flood intensity. In places like the American West, extended periods of drought have created land so hard-baked that its ability to absorb rainfall is impaired. This impermeability was a factor in the intensity of the flash flood that tore through the Grand Canyon last month. Wildfires, besides exacerbating soil dryness, leave a lot of debris, creating debris flows that add to floods’ destructiveness. Though wildfire was not a factor in the Nepal flood, the US Geological Survey description of that event uses the term "debris avalanche" to describe the flow and its effects, which included the destruction of an international border crossing and the total inundation of many villages.
While the Mid-Ohio Valley is not at risk of the kind of flood that caused such devastation in Nepal, we are vulnerable. A 2017 study by the Army Corps of Engineers found that Ohio’s temperatures are likely to increase 16% by the end of the century, making our climate more like that of today’s Alabama. Stronger storms will be interspersed with longer periods of drought, leading to reduced water levels of as much as 50% in inland rivers like the Muskingum and more dessicated, impermeable soils. That same Corps of Engineers study found that, with the likely increase in extreme rainfall events, the Ohio River may start experiencing storm-induced surges of as much as 25% as soon as 2041, a mere fifteen years from now.
Most of our flood-prevention infrastructure was built more than 60 years ago for a very different climate. Our dams, levees, and floodwalls were built to prevent floods like those of 1913 and 1937, not those we are likely to see in the future. If our storms continue to intensify, will the current protections be enough? Only time will tell.
Rebecca Phillips is an Appalachian native, a WVUP retiree, and a member of Mid-Ohio Valley Climate Action.